Modelling

The STRIVE RPC will develop new methodologies to ensure that evaluations address not only whether interventions ‘work’, but also the processes of change and the pathways through which they achieve their impact.

STRIVE includes a special focus on expanding the role of mathematical modelling to predict impact and better quantify the multiple contributions of structural factors to HIV transmission. Methods include:

  • Reprogramming of HIV transmission models, to reflect the influence of one or more contextual factors on individual behaviour.
  • Modelling analyses, to illustrate how structural factors influence HIV risk.
  • Supporting regular discussion fora to share emerging literature, research findings and experiences, with the aim of drawing out methodological lessons.
  • Detailed reviews of current evidence on the links between structural drivers and HIV risk in focal countries, and methodological discussions about potential approaches to capturing the effect of structural drivers.